Long, Rambling Post on Why the Rumored A-Rod Trade is Boras' Mona Lisa

The current spin on the A-Rod situation is that he's cut off Boras and is going back to the Yankees, hat in hand.

The storyline is that A-Rod needed to show humility and take a cut for the subsidy money he cost the Yankees so that the Yankees can feel good about signing him for a hometown discount ($275mm). ESPN's Buster Olney seems to think Boras messed up. The LA Times Bill Shaikin does too.

I, on the other hand, think that Boras continues to be baseball's premier evil genius.

The first myth that needs to be dispelled is the idea that getting less than $300 million/year should be considered a failure. Just because Boras said that $350 million was the minimum price for the Yankees to even speak with A-Rod doesn't mean that even he believed it was. This is a negotiation. Even a 4 year old can start at a dollar and settle at 75 cents after a 50 cent counter offer. Especially with A-Rod, Boras has excelled at stretching the imaginations of not only the GM's and owners, but the fans. This makes it possible for him to get a $275 million contract and have it seem like a bargain.

I contend that A-Rod's personal visit to the Yankees is just another Boras maneuver. The Yankees already positioned themselves as above opening negotiations with Boras when they made their ultimatum over A-Rod's desire to opt out of the last 3 years of the contract. Boras, for his part, knows that the only team that's going to put down anything like the money he wants won't talk to him.

Boras has everyone fooled. The media, fans, everyone is focusing on the wrong numbers. The second trick is that Boras has everyone feeling good about A-Rod taking a modest pay cut over what would have been the last 3 years of his old contract and making up for the $21 million in lost money from the Rangers.

Here's the number that explains it all: $168 million

That's what A-Rod makes from his age 37-42 seasons, or 60% of the contract. Traditionally, these aren't the most productive years in a baseball player's life. A baseball player peaks somewhere between 27 and 32 and then will digress over time until he retires. So every one of A-Rod's 5 most productive seasons are not only likely behind him (he's 32) but will have cost the Yankees less than his 5 least productive seasons. So who cares about $21 million? or the slight pay decrease for the next 3 years? Its a lot easier to get a 32 year old A-Rod coming off of 54 homers $275 million than it is to get $28 million a year for a 39 or 40 year old DH coming off of 30. Not even Barry Bonds was making that kind of money (he averaged 17.5 million) and he had some of the best seasons in the history of the game at quite an advanced age. Its doubtful that A-Rod will be able to perform at that level without the chemical help that Bonds had.

When Boras got the $252 million, it seemed ridiculous at the time, but a reasonable argument could be made that it would be in line with future salaries. Seven years later, its still ridiculous. Based on the current climate, where owners have been burned so many times and teams are refusing to let their good young players get to free agency, I think it would be impossible to get if it hadn't been done before. $275 is a reasonable salary if you accept the premise that $252 is as well. I certainly don't, but Boras has single-handedly created a world where people do. That's where this deal was made. Seven years ago.

Scott Boras is a genius. He's better at his job than every single person in baseball, A-Rod included. He does have an ego, but there is nothing that would keep him from getting the contract he wants for his client. If that means stepping back and appearing to let A-Rod do it on his own, that's what he'll do. Boras let Andruw Jones's father negotiate a 6 year, $75 million contract, but still represents Jones.

So consider this. If anyone deserves $28 million a year (no one does), its 32 year old third baseman Alex Rodriguez, but 41 year old DH A-Rod is probably worth, today, $12 million. Let's assume everything goes well, and A-Rod ages in a Bonds-ian fashion. Conveniently, this was Bonds' age 42 season. from 2002 (Age 37 season) to 2007, Bonds made $105 million. At the time, Barry Bonds was the best player in the history of baseball for his age and for many other ages. We know now that steroids were the main reason for this. Not only will A-Rod not likely be on steroids, but some of Bonds' seasons in that time frame are better than any A-Rod has ever put up. I think its safe to say that A-Rod won't be better in 4 years than Barry Bonds was at the same age.

That means that at a cost of about $12 million (32 million over the next 3 years down to 28), Boras was able to get A-Rod, at worst, about an extra $63 million more than Bonds got between ages 37 and 42. Not bad. If, for some reason, A-Rod doesn't take up steroids later in life, this is an even better deal. That's a net gain of $50 million.

Write this down:

Not only does Boras get his cut, proving that this was his work, after all, but A-Rod's salary his final year of this deal, at age 42, is still the highest in baseball.

Nice job, Scott.