Why am I so optimistic, you might ask? Well, I'm sure you've heard about the National Intelligence Estimate that more or less refuted everything Bush has been telling us about Iran's nuclear program. In short, the Estimate judges that, contrary to the 2005 report:
1) Iran suspended its program to develop nuclear weapons in 2003.
2) Iran has a reduced interest in producing any nuclear weapons at all.
3) Iran would be unlikely to be able to produce a nuclear weapon until 2015.
Good. That gives me 8 years to get my affairs in order.
Most interestingly, the Estimate believes that:
Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush
to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.
This, in turn, suggest that some combination of threats of intensified
international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to
achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways,
might--if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible--prompt Tehran to extend the
current halt to its nuclear weapons program.
So...Iran might, in fact, be open to more of a "carrot and stick" proposal, as opposed to the "beaten with a stick" option that Bush likes so much.
CNN reports on Bush's bold policy announcement as a result of the findings:
"no change"
Which makes sense in Bush-land. The President has a history of dismissing countervailing evidence or using it as support for his positions. I am a little surprised he doesn't want to make even a cosmetic change to his policy. Even the Iraq Study Group's findings led to the New Way Forward. I mean, that policy had the word new in it, even if it did seem a little familiar.
Not that I'm going to start singing the Iranian national anthem in the street or anything, but the estimate seems to indicate that, contrary to what the President would prefer us to believe, Tehran has listened to international pressure over the last four years. It seems like this would be a great opportunity to push beyond the "axis of evil" rhetoric, help Iran achieve its regional goals, and put this nuclear weapons thing to bed. As long as we monitor Iran closely, that should help us...avert...war. Oh.
Oh man. Bush must be really pissed. Now he's going to have to go ahead and work on a whole new reason to bomb someone.
I feel ya, buddy. We'll find you something to blow up.
1 comment:
Josh Marshall thinks the cosmetic change was made in October from We Must Not Let Iran Get the Bomb to We Must Not Let Iran Acquire Bomb-Making Know-How.
(Which is paradoxical, since the US itself posted bomb making instructions on the internet, in Arabic.)
Next week it'll be Iran Must Not Be Allowed to Know that Nukes Exist. Whoops, Too Late! Let's Bury 'Em.
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